Since March 2025 within the U.S. (and Might elsewhere), many websites have seen an uncomfortable sample: natural conversions slipping.
It’s straightforward guilty falling site visitors from Google’s intensified AI Overviews.
However buy intent doesn’t simply vanish. Does it?
In case your conversions are holding regular, congratulations. In the event that they’re not, the explanations could also be extra layered than you assume.
In at the moment’s Memo, I’m breaking down the 5 greatest forces I see behind search engine optimisation conversion declines throughout industries:
- Lack of top-of-the-funnel (TOFU) site visitors (and why it issues greater than you thought).
- Platform shifts pulling demand into different ecosystems.
- Channel shifts from natural to paid search.
- Attribution leakage that hides natural’s true affect.
- Macro elements pressuring conversion charges.
I’ll additionally stroll you thru the alerts to verify, learn how to measure every, and – contained in the premium part – the precise course of I exploit to determine which drivers are hitting a website the toughest.
Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig
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How have your SEO conversions changed since Google intensified AI Overviews?
If they’ve grown – all the power to you!
If not, I’m seeing five underlying reasons that could be contributing to their decline across industry types:
- Loss of TOFU traffic.
- Platform shift.
- Channel shift.
- Attribution loss.
- Economic change.
Sites that are noticing an SEO conversion drop have seen it since 2025 (March in the U.S., May in other countries).
It’s logical to assume that the reason is a decline in organic traffic – makes sense – but purchase intent doesn’t just vanish.
Have your conversions gone to other sites, or could there be another explanation behind their decline?
Let’s dig in.
For decades, SEOs have created top-of-the-funnel content (like “what is X” or “why you need X”). This kind of content often has an unclear impact on the bottom line.
Now that organic clicks are dropping, conversions are dropping (to a lower degree) as well.
Was top-of-the-funnel content more impactful than we thought all along?
I raised that theory first in the AI Halftime Report:
AIOs are really mostly TOFU queries. In that case, TOFU content always had more impact on the bottom line than we were able to prove and we can expect the traffic decline to level off.
Or AIOs impact way more than MOFU and BOFU queries as well (which is what I think), and we’re in for a long decline of traffic.
If true, I expect revenue that’s attributed to organic search to decline at a lower rate – or not at all for certain companies – since purchase intent doesn’t just go away. Therefore, revenue results would relate more to our ability to influence purchase intent.
That’s where my concept of “Demand Activation” elasticity comes in.
In economics, price elasticity measures how much demand changes when prices change.
In marketing, Demand Activation elasticity describes how much eventual purchase behavior changes when you influence someone early in their journey.
Think about Demand Activation as how many potential customers you influence to buy from you.
If the “elasticity” is high, being visible at the very top of the funnel creates a disproportionate downstream impact on revenue, even if you can’t directly attribute it in analytics.
If this turns out to be correct, it’s an argument for earning AI visibility.
If Demand Activation has the impact I think it has, being visible in ChatGPT, AI Mode & Co. has stronger downstream effects than we can directly attribute. I’ve certainly seen more high-pipeline deals and purchases come from ChatGPT for some of my clients.
To illustrate the concept, let’s consider an economic example.
I’ve been searching for an excuse to write about the economic impact if Germany were to open stores on Sundays for a long time: Would people buy more if they could, or would purchases simply spread out across more days?
Studies by the EHI, IFO, and IW Köln show that people in Germany would actually buy more if stores were open on Sundays, especially non-food items. [1, 2, 3]
Shops in Germany do open a number of Sundays a 12 months.
And through these uncommon events, folks store extra, particularly for impulse buys.
Some analysis means that it’s primarily pushed by occasions and tourism in larger spend areas, however taking a look at EU neighbors with an open-Sunday coverage, just like the Netherlands, we see persistently larger incremental retail spend.
To convey it again to Search, publicity early on within the person journey (as in “extra open Sundays”) may need a stronger downstream affect (like extra top-of-funnel visits) than we thought. Due to this fact, it could possibly be crucial to be broadly seen in LLMs.
Alerts To Test:
1. TOFU site visitors decline vs. MOFU/BOFU.
- Tips on how to measure: In Search Console, filter queries utilizing a TOFU regex (take away branded phrases). Examine YOY clicks for TOFU vs. MOFU/BOFU.
2. Branded search quantity change.
- Tips on how to measure: Use Google Developments or a basic key phrase instrument (Ahrefs, Semrush) to trace branded search quantity over time. Correlate drops with TOFU site visitors declines and conversions from natural.
3. Assisted conversions drop.
- Tips on how to measure: In GA4 or one other MTA mannequin, evaluate YOY assisted conversions from natural search. A pointy drop suggests TOFU content material was influencing downstream income.
One other rationalization is that conversions are taking place extra on different platforms as a substitute of Google Search.
Whereas Google’s advert market share has grown over the past 5 years, search conduct has diversified throughout a number of ecosystems:
- TikTok, YouTube, Reddit, LinkedIn, Instagram, area of interest boards – all of which have their very own “search” layers.
- YouTube has lengthy been the second-largest search engine on the planet.
- Reddit is now the second-largest website within the U.S. (solely Wikipedia is greater), and Google is surfacing Reddit content material extra prominently, besides in ecommerce.
The most important shift, nevertheless, could also be to LLMs.
ChatGPT alone sees 2.5 billion prompts per day.[4] Whereas many prompts are additive to Google Search and exploratory in intent, it’s unlikely there’s no overlap with purchase-driven queries.
Why that is taking place now:
- Google’s elevated integration of Reddit outcomes (high-trust person content material) adjustments click on patterns.
- New LLM mannequin releases (ChatGPT o3, Gemini 2.5) enhance high quality and pace, conserving customers inside AI environments longer.
- AI-first platforms are starting to really feel much less “experimental” and extra like a default analysis instrument.
Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig
Alerts To Test:
1. Referral site visitors from non-Google search platforms.
- Tips on how to measure: In GA4, observe YOY referral site visitors from YouTube, Reddit, TikTok, LinkedIn. See if good points coincide with Google natural losses.
2. Share of search exercise throughout platforms.
- Tips on how to measure: Use Similarweb, Statcounter, or GWI to match platform-specific search volumes and market share over time.
3. Self-reported attribution.
- Tips on how to measure: Ask customers to fill out a brief survey about the place they first and final noticed your model after signing up or shopping for.
It’s also potential that the clicks that might have gone to natural search are actually going to paid search. The logic is easy:
When AI Overviews or zero-click outcomes fulfill a lot of the informational want, the one outstanding affords left are sometimes advertisements.
If customers nonetheless wish to discover a services or products after studying an AIO, they is likely to be extra more likely to click on the sponsored end result than scroll additional to natural hyperlinks.
The timing matches AIO rollout phases. If we see Google reporting robust Search income progress whereas natural site visitors declines, it’s a signal the demand has not disappeared – it’s simply being monetized otherwise.
Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig
Alphabet’s Q1 2025 10‑Q [5] reveals that paid clicks from Google Search both grew or hit 0% progress within the final 10 quarters, however by no means declined.
Impressions (from Google Community), however, noticed the other pattern.
At any time when paid impressions drop, paid clicks go up as a result of decrease advert stock means advertisers must pay extra for site visitors.
Q2 2025 earnings [6] highlighted that Search advert income grew 12% 12 months‑over‑12 months. Business benchmark information reveals that the typical Google CPC in 2025 lands at $5.26 – up roughly 13% year-over-year.[7]
So, much less advert stock results in larger CPCs and extra paid clicks.
Since we don’t know what number of AI Overviews Google exhibits advertisements for, we will’t say with certainty that extra clicks are going to advertisements as a direct end result, however the information does present that extra clicks are going to advertisements.
Alerts To Test:
1. Natural vs. paid search site visitors share.
- Tips on how to measure: In GA4, evaluate YOY periods from natural search vs. paid search. Search for paid’s share rising as natural drops.
2. Paid search impression and click on progress.
- Tips on how to measure: Pull impressions and clicks out of your Google Advertisements account (or business benchmarks) over the past 12 months and evaluate to pre-AIO durations.
3. CPC and CPA developments.
- Tips on how to measure: In Google Advertisements or business benchmarks, observe YOY CPC and CPA adjustments in your vertical. Rising CPC with natural decline suggests a combination shift.
One (in style) chance is that the affect of natural search has not modified a lot, however the best way we measure it has.
Basically, basic attribution strategies are damaged.
Within the basic mannequin, the trail was:
Search → Click on → Touchdown Web page → Conversion
Now, the trail could look extra like:
Search (or AIO) → Model Recall → Direct Go to → Conversion
AI Overviews reply the person’s query earlier than the clicking, so when they’re prepared to purchase, they bypass the search click on completely and go straight to the homepage or an app.
In analytics, that conversion exhibits up as direct site visitors, not natural search.
Attribution leakage has at all times been a problem for search engine optimisation, however AI-driven summaries and model mentions make it worse.
As a result of it’s a requirement seize channel, think about that search engine optimisation takes far more time between first and final contact to transform customers than the default 90-day lookback window.
Usually, the final contact is vulnerable to paid channels as a result of promoting ideas folks over the sting.
Additionally, it’s not unusual for customers to modify units throughout a purchase order cycle, making attribution approach tougher. Lastly, most attribution instruments are geared in the direction of promoting.
In the event you solely observe last-click conversions, you could underestimate the true contribution of search visibility.
Alerts To Test:
1. Direct conversions are up whereas natural conversions are down.
- Tips on how to measure: In GA4, evaluate YOY direct channel conversions vs. natural. Search for inverse motion.
2. Branded search secure or rising.
- Tips on how to measure: Use Google Developments or a key phrase instrument to trace branded search queries. Stability with natural session decline suggests clicks are being skipped.
3. Multi-touch attribution nonetheless exhibits search affect.
- Tips on how to measure: In GA4 (data-driven mannequin) or a devoted attribution instrument, verify if search stays a standard first or help touchpoint even when last-click conversions fall.
Are search engine optimisation conversion charges down as a result of folks merely have much less cash?
There may be credible proof that macro circumstances within the U.S. are weighing on conversion charges:
1. Value sensitivity and promotion dependence
Adobe reviews that buyers have been unusually worth elastic through the vacation season of 2024.
A 1% drop in worth produced a roughly 1.03% rise in demand, indicating elevated sensitivity to reductions. That impact implies conversions have been closely promotion-led.[8]
Adobe’s Digital Value Index exhibits on-line costs have fallen for 33 straight months via Might 2025, suggesting retailers are discounting to stimulate demand.
Sustained discounting usually lifts conversions solely when worth cuts are materials, and it compresses margins.[9]
2. Client warning and blend shift
Salesforce’s Procuring Index commentary notes U.S. buyers “shopping for much less,” prioritizing necessities, and buying and selling down in 2025.
It additionally cites 0% U.S. ecommerce gross sales progress in Q1 2025, according to softer sensitivity to buy.[10]
Client confidence has improved barely however stays mushy relative to 2024, which tends to dampen conversion charges.[11]
3. Family finance constraints
The New York Fed reviews complete family debt at a report $18.39 trillion in Q2 2025, with delinquency charges up from earlier durations and bank card balances at $1.21 trillion.
Larger borrowing prices and rising delinquencies constrain checkout conversion, particularly for lower-income cohorts.[12]
4. Noticed conversion strain in digital benchmarks
Contentsquare’s 2025 Digital Expertise Benchmark finds on-line conversion charges fell 6.1% 12 months over 12 months, attributing a lot to expertise friction.
In context with the macro alerts above, this helps a broader atmosphere the place it’s tougher to show visits into orders with out heavier incentives.[13]
However…
General, U.S. ecommerce {dollars} are nonetheless rising in lots of durations, together with +5.6% year-over-year in Q1 2025 and robust vacation spend, so demand has not collapsed.
Progress is being “purchased” via worth cuts and promotions, which might masks weaker underlying conversion propensity.[14, 15]
Additionally, you might argue that these financial circumstances have been in place for a number of years.
Why would they affect search engine optimisation conversions a lot now?
Alerts To Test:
1. Natural conversion fee pattern vs. different channels.
- Monitor month-to-month search engine optimisation conversion charges alongside paid search, direct, and e-mail.
- If all channels decline in parallel, macroeconomic strain is a possible driver.
- If natural drops disproportionately, AI Overviews are including to the decline.
2. Correlation with financial indicators.
- Examine natural CR developments to macro metrics like CPI, inflation fee, Client Confidence Index, and on-line worth developments (Adobe DPI).
- Search for statistically vital correlations, like CR rising when CPI falls or confidence will increase.
- If patterns are related throughout Paid Search and Direct, macroeconomic elements are possible influencing buy readiness.
3. Promotion elasticity
- Measure CR elevate throughout promotions vs. baseline for natural, paid, and direct site visitors.
- A much bigger elevate than in prior years – particularly if mirrored throughout channels – signifies conversions are more and more discount-driven, an indication of macro strain.
In the event you’re experiencing a decline in search engine optimisation conversions in 2025, it’s possible not on account of one particular motive.
In reality, it’s possible that every one 5 choices are enjoying into search engine optimisation conversion drops throughout the online.
To what diploma every choice has an affect issues from website to website and business to business.
That’s why it’s so essential to run the evaluation I like to recommend in every part above on your personal information.
AI Mode will intensify the downward pattern of search engine optimisation conversions.
I don’t assume search engine optimisation will decline to zero as a result of a small fraction of individuals will nonetheless click on, even in AI Mode.
And Google gained’t present AI Mode in all places, as a result of adoption is generational (see the UX examine of AIOs for more information).
I feel AI Mode will launch at a broader scale (like displaying up for extra queries total) when Google figures out monetization.
Plus, ChatGPT will not be but monetizing, so advertisers go to Google and Meta – for now. And that’s my speculation as to why Google Search is constant to develop.
A minimum of in the meanwhile.
It’ll be fascinating to see what occurs subsequent within the coming months.
Featured Picture: Paulo Bobita/Search Engine Journal
