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Extra knowledge exhibits ChatGPT isn’t taking market share away from Google.
As an alternative, it’s increasing the vary of use circumstances and blurring the road between looking for info and performing duties.
I checked out Similarweb knowledge to grasp how this impacts 4 completely different levels of the person journey throughout Google and ChatGPT:
- Utilization.
- Conduct.
- Outbound clicks.
- Changing.
What I discovered is that ChatGPT adoption is, basically, a 400,000-pound locomotive barreling down the tracks with no intention of stopping anytime quickly.
Person conversations inside ChatGPT are wealthy in context, which results in increased conversion charges when intent shifts from info searching for or producing to purchasing.
Lastly, and in addition most notably for SEOs and progress entrepreneurs, ChatGPT is sending much more customers out to the net.
In fact, all of those stats are nonetheless small compared to Google.
Nevertheless, no effort from Google has been capable of gradual the momentum of ChatGPT’s runaway practice. Concerning the knowledge I used on this evaluation:
- Information supply: Similarweb (shoutout to Sam Sheridan).
- Time interval examined: July 2024 – June 2025 (final 12 months) vs. July 2023 – June 2024 (earlier 12 months).
- I additionally examined U.S. vs. UK person conduct.
Picture Credit score Kevin Indig
Persons are speeding to ChatGPT.
During the last 12 months within the U.S., ChatGPT visits grew from 3.5 to six.8 billion visits (+94%).
Within the UK, it was even quicker: 131% YoY, from 868 million to 2 billion.
Over the identical time span, Google progress stagnated. Right here’s what the information confirmed:
- U.S. stagnation: -0.85% (196 vs. 194 billion).
- UK stagnation: -0.22% (35.56 vs. 35.49 billion).
Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig
To place it into perspective: Google had nearly 200 billion visits within the U.S. during the last 12 months, in comparison with ChatGPT’s 6.8 billion.
So, ChatGPT has a mere 3.4% of Google’s complete visits.
Nevertheless, if progress charges maintain regular, in idea, ChatGPT might hit Google’s quantity within the subsequent 5 years.
My speculation: It’s nearly assured that ChatGPT gained’t hit Google’s go to quantity as a result of there are too many shifting elements (power/chip limitations, coaching knowledge, high quality enhancements, regulation, and so on.).
However contemplate that Google has declined by -0.85% (~2 billion visits) year-over-year, and you’ll see the place that is going.
Visits can solely let you know a lot.
Current knowledge from Semrush and Profound means that one-third to two-thirds of person intent when interacting with AI chatbots is generative, which means customers use ChatGPT to do and fewer to look [1, 2].
Leaked chats from ChatGPT and different AI chatbots verify the combination knowledge.
So, even once we examine visits to ChatGPT vs. Google, they’re not resulting in the identical final result.
However, towards that argument, I’ll say that Google morphs extra right into a mirror of ChatGPT with AI Mode – and each generative intent has a excessive probability of together with info alongside the dialog journey that’s sourced to different websites or creators.
The conversational nature of AI chatbots means intent is fluid and might change from one immediate to the subsequent.
Alongside the best way, it’s seemingly customers come throughout info of their conversations that will’ve been a traditional Google Seek for merchandise or options.
On the finish of the day, ChatGPT is constant its adoption because the fastest-growing product on earth thus far.
What does that imply for you?
- Keep the course.
- Maintain monitoring referral visitors, conversions, and subject visibility on Google + ChatGPT.
- Optimize for visibility with a robust concentrate on traditional search engine marketing.
- Maintain an ear to the bottom and be taught as a lot as you may. Issues are evolving quick, and readability will include time.
Fast reminder right here: I lately transitioned my WhatsApp group over to Slack. I share ongoing information and learnings all through the week overtly and freely, so it’s an important place to remain up to date with out all the additional (and generally overwhelming) noise. No have to be a premium subscriber to get entry to the principle dialogue channel. Be part of right here!
Previous habits are exhausting to interrupt.
Persons are used to looking on Google a sure manner, whereas ChatGPT is a inexperienced subject.
For the overwhelming majority of us, our first expertise with ChatGPT was a dialog, so all of us adopted it because the default option to have interaction.
Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig
Because of this, the typical question immediate size on ChatGPT vs. Google is:
- 80 phrases vs 3.4 within the U.S.
- 91 phrases vs. 3.2 within the UK.
Even informational prompts are 10 occasions longer (~38 phrases) on ChatGPT than on Google. Folks ask extra detailed questions, which reveal far more about themselves and their intent.
Along with a rising context window, ChatGPT returns far more personalised and (often) higher informational solutions – I’m nonetheless ready on constantly higher industrial/buy intent outcomes.[3] AI chatbots compress the person journey from many queries over a number of days to 1 dialog with prolonged prompts.
For you, this implies it’s much more essential to watch the appropriate prompts.
(I shared a trick with premium subscribers for locating prompts in Google Search Console from AI Mode in Is AI reducing into your search engine marketing conversions?)
As referral visitors from Google reached historic lows, ChatGPT’s referral visitors reached new highs.
Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig
During the last 12 months, ChatGPT’s U.S. referral visitors to web sites jumped by +3,496% (UK: +5,950%), from 14 to 516 million (after cleansing up referrals to Openai.com, that are principally authentications).
Compared, Google’s outgoing referral visits grew solely +23% within the U.S. and 19% within the UK.
When you think about Google referrals embody navigational searches (individuals navigating to the homepage of a model) and advert clicks (ChatGPT doesn’t but have advertisements), 23% shouldn’t be a lot in any respect.
ChatGPT’s referral visitors to exterior web sites makes up ~27% of Google’s (1.9 billion, within the final 12 months), primarily based on the information. That feels excessive, in my subject remark.
Additionally contemplate that ChatGPT’s objective shouldn’t be essentially to ship out visitors however to maintain the dialog going till customers have the optimum response.
That being mentioned, referral visitors has grown and continues to take action. Till lately.
In line with Profound, ChatGPT’s referral visitors was down -52% between July 21 and August 20. [4] And that’s vital.
Time will inform whether or not that is simply an experiment or a ultimate choice.
For you, this implies it is best to see extra ChatGPT referral visitors during the last 12 months in the event you optimize properly.
You may not see a rise of +3,500%, however in the event you’re not seeing not less than some progress, it’s seemingly your rivals are.
Conversions from ChatGPT are small compared with Google (in quantity), however they’re rising quickly.
The entire narrative of investing in AI visibility optimization (AEO/GEO/LLMO) banks on the truth that it should proceed on the similar tempo and turn out to be significant.
Thus far, it looks as if that guess will work out.
Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig
When ChatGPT sends visitors to websites, the conversion fee is often increased than Google’s. As of June 2025:
- ChatGPT’s conversion fee of transactional visitors was 6.9% within the U.S. in comparison with 5.4% for Google.
- Within the UK, ChatGPT reached 5.5%, which is on par with Google.
ChatGPT sends higher-quality visitors to web sites, not less than within the U.S.
I outline high quality on this context as “increased intent,” which means guests usually tend to convert into prospects.
The rationale ChatGPT visitors is of upper high quality is that customers get solutions to their questions in a single dialog. After they click on out, they’re “primed” to purchase.
To me, the larger query is how buy choices are influenced earlier than a click on occurs (and even when no click-out occurs).
For you, this implies:
- Have a look at which pages get referral visitors. Take the typical referral visitors and optimize pages that get some however below-average clicks.
- Optimizing for citations issues as a result of citations are what get clicked. Have a look at the quotation hole between your rivals and your website.
- Search for conversion optimization alternatives (in-line CTAs, lead gen property, quizzes, and so on) on pages that get ChatGPT referral visitors. Utilizing a normal heatmap software will level you to areas of the web page that are perfect for just a little CRO.
ChatGPT has all of the components to turn out to be the subsequent massive person platform on which different firms can construct – similar to Google 25 years in the past:
- Utilization is rising.
- Conduct is wealthy in context.
- Referral visitors is taking pictures up.
- Conversions occur at a wholesome fee.
Now, visitors and conversations simply want extra quantity.
They’re nonetheless tiny compared.
Featured Picture: Paulo Bobita/Search Engine Journal
