I used to be requested not too long ago to take a better take a look at the info for an internet site in Google Analytics 4 (GA4).
This was for “Measurement Queen” Katie Delahaye Paine, a pioneer with over 30 years of expertise in communications analysis and measurement, who now seems like she is flying blind.
From her information in GA4, it seems that 86% of the brand new customers who visited her web site over the past 28 days got here from the “direct” channel.
Meaning the writer of Measure What Issues can’t determine the sources of the overwhelming majority of her web site’s visitors.
So, I in contrast consumer acquisition for the final 28 days with the identical interval final 12 months (matching the day of week). The excellent news was that complete new customers had been up 29% year-over-year (YoY).
However right here’s the dangerous information: Direct visitors to her web site was up 126% YoY, whereas referral visitors was down 90%, natural social visitors was down 33%, and natural search visitors was down 28%.
Because of this greater than six out of seven customers are actually arriving on Paine’s web site with no traceable referrer.
This contains conditions the place a consumer sorts her web site tackle immediately into their browser, makes use of a bookmark to entry her web site, or arrives from a supply that doesn’t go referrer info.
Desk of Contents
Digging Deeper Into What’s Behind The Site visitors Surge
So, I requested the Measurement Queen a few commonplace questions:
She replied, “I don’t also have a TikTok account and haven’t used WhatsApp in years!”
I’d name {that a} huge no. But it surely additionally indicated that I ought to use GA4’s search perform to find “prime touchdown web page by customers for first consumer default channel group of direct visitors.”
The positioning’s homepage was the highest touchdown web page for direct visitors, however solely 18.37% of customers landed there. In second place was her weblog, The Measurement Advisor, which obtained 13.96% of the positioning’s direct visitors.
After I shared this information with Paine, she revealed, “I’ve been running a blog extra often.”
I’d name {that a} huge sure. So, I simply requested Google in regards to the titles of her current weblog posts in Google’s search field.
Right here’s what I noticed after I Googled [Sorry boss, I never got the Memo. How to know if you’re reaching the unreachables?].
Screenshot from seek for [Sorry boss, I never got the Memo. How to know if you’re reaching the unreachables?], Google, June 2025It’s price noting that even when her content material seems in a Google AI Overview, the hyperlink to her weblog submit doesn’t go referrer information to GA4, and the hyperlink to her LinkedIn article on the identical subject isn’t tracked by her GA4 account.
Then, I simply requested Google, [Is Paine Publishing an authoritative site?].
Right here’s what I noticed:
Screenshot from seek for [Is Paine Publishing an authoritative site?], Google, June 2025So, even among the direct visitors to her homepage might have come from hyperlinks in AI Overviews that don’t go referrer information to GA4.
Why haven’t related insights been reported to extra CMOs?
Reporting Squirrels, who primarily concentrate on producing stories with out essentially offering deep insights or actionable suggestions, are reluctant to spotlight any such anomaly, particularly when “direct” means “We don’t know.”
So, CMOs must rethink attribution in AI search. They should independently confirm and interpret GA4 event-based information.
They usually additionally want to rent “Evaluation Ninjas,” who excel at analyzing information to uncover hidden patterns, generate insights, and supply suggestions for enterprise enchancment.
Rethinking Attribution In AI Search
CMOs must rethink their basic assumptions about attribution.
How ought to they attribute credit score to key consumer actions all through the shopper’s journey towards making a purchase order or finishing different vital actions on their websites?
They need to keep away from the previous discussions that narrowly centered on data-driven attribution versus paid and natural last-click attribution.
These touchpoints appear much less significant when AI search is obscuring the sources of six out of seven of their web site’s guests.
As a substitute, CMOs (and vital members of their crew) ought to learn “It’s Time for Entrepreneurs to Transfer Past the Linear Funnel,”
The article by the Boston Consulting Group cites force-fitting the complicated array of touchpoints right into a linear, funnel mannequin doesn’t align with precise buyer journeys.
This linear, funnel mannequin can result in missed alternatives resulting from poorly allotted sources or ineffective communication.
BCG says, “Entrepreneurs ought to as an alternative undertake a extra adaptable framework that extra precisely displays the true paths customers take.”
BCG recommends shifting from the linear funnel to “affect maps.” However, earlier than CMOs fly into that fog financial institution, they need to re-examine the “increasing community of touchpoints – new streaming providers, on-line procuring experiences, GenAI, and social platforms.”
Recognizing The Attribution Gaps That Existed Earlier than AI
If CMOs blow up the funnel mannequin and study what’s within the consciousness stage, they’ll see it contains radio, TV advertisements, magazines/newspapers, in-store bulletins, phrase of mouth, packaging, and billboards. None of those had been ever tracked in GA4.
And, in the event that they analyze what’s within the consideration stage, they’ll see it contains video, model websites, social media, search, sponsored content material, retail media, in-app, and e mail. These had been tracked by GA4 – till AI search began clouding over the sources of this visitors to web sites.
In different phrases, GA4 didn’t observe the attention stage of this “multi-touchpoint panorama” even earlier than the appearance of Google AI Overviews.
And now that AI search is obscuring the sources of a lot of the touchpoints within the consideration stage, CMOs must quickly rethink, overview, revise, reassess, reconceptualize, and reimagine their assumptions about data-driven attribution.
These previous assumptions should still be legitimate for Efficiency Max campaigns in Google Advertisements, which leverage Google’s AI to maximise efficiency throughout all of Google’s promoting channels, together with Search, Show, YouTube, Uncover, Gmail, and Maps.
And when a company connects its Google Analytics property to a Google Advertisements account, it makes it attainable to align GA4 and Google Advertisements conversions utilizing the group’s most vital occasions.
However, based on a 2024 zero-click search research, paid search accounts for under 1% of clicks.
So, how do CMOs assign credit score to search engine optimisation, content material advertising, social media advertising, and communications for the 40.5% of different Google searches that produce clicks, or the 58.5% of zero-click searches?
Till Google gives a brand new model of Analytics that measures what issues for professionals throughout all the advertising combine, CMOs might want to independently confirm and interpret GA4’s event-based information.
Independently Verifying And Decoding GA4 Occasion-Based mostly Knowledge
How do CMOs uncover the crucial information and strategic insights they should efficiently navigate by way of the fog financial institution surrounding the attention stage of buyer journeys?
They need to conduct extra old-school market analysis. Paradoxically, many manufacturers minimize their budgets for market analysis after Google began providing free model elevate research to advertisers for his or her YouTube campaigns in March 2013.
However, CMOs don’t must restrict impartial model elevate research to asking questions on advert recall. They’ll ask questions on model consciousness, consideration, and buy intent to know the worth of their complete advertising combine.
In 2019, my digital advertising company helped the Rutgers College of Administration and Labor Relations (SMLR) launch a brand new on-line grasp’s diploma program.
We received the U.S. Search Award for Finest Use of PR in a Search Marketing campaign and had been a finalist within the Finest Built-in Marketing campaign class.
We carried out pre- and post-launch surveys six months aside to point out:
- The proportion of respondents who stated they had been “acquainted with” Rutgers SMLR had elevated from 13.8% pre-launch to 18.5% post-launch.
- The proportion of respondents who stated they had been “very doubtless” to suggest Rutgers SMLR to a good friend or colleague had elevated from 16.7% pre-launch to 19.0% post-launch.
Subsequent, CMOs can efficiently navigate by way of the low clouds now obscuring the touchpoints within the consideration stage by placing somebody accountable for viewers analysis in addition to market analysis.
There are a number of wonderful viewers analysis instruments, every with distinctive strengths, to assist perceive their wants, behaviors, preferences, and motivations.
For on-line conduct and digital footprints, SparkToro and Similarweb are extremely efficient.
For psychographic and cultural affinity evaluation, Audiense and BuzzSumo are nice selections.
For social listening and model monitoring, Sprout Social and Keyhole are highly effective choices.
Taking Management When Analytics Falls Quick
Subsequent, CMOs ought to problem their search engine optimisation, content material advertising, social media advertising, and communications groups to create their very own audiences in GA4 identical to those that the paid media crew is already utilizing for remarketing campaigns.
For instance, a PR viewers may embrace customers who:
- Scroll to 90% of a weblog submit or article.
- Obtain a whitepaper.
- Play at the least 50% of a product video.
- Full a tutorial.
The communications crew can share their PR audiences with their colleagues in paid media, who can use Google Advertisements to remarket to those teams of customers.
- If customers scroll to 90% or extra of your weblog submit or obtain a whitepaper, then they’ll use advertisements to ask them to subscribe to your publication.
- If customers play at the least 50% of a product video or full a tutorial, then they’ll use advertisements to ask them to attend a number of in-person or digital occasions.
CMOs also needs to ask their digital analytics groups if they’ve used “Explorations” this month. This can be a set of superior instruments in GA4 designed to transcend fundamental stories, permitting them to realize deeper insights into their prospects’ conduct.
There’s no approach to predict what totally different digital analytics groups will uncover, however CMOs who really feel they’re flying blind will wish to know what their crew noticed after they used:
- Person Exploration to dig into information about particular person customers or teams inside your segments to investigate detailed consumer journeys.
- Cohort Exploration to check consumer teams with shared traits to know conduct tendencies and efficiency over time.
- Phase Overlap to check how consumer segments intersect to uncover hidden audiences that meet particular situations.
- Funnel Exploration to trace the steps customers observe to finish key actions, serving to you optimize conversion paths and spot efficiency points.
- Path Exploration to visualise the precise navigation paths customers take by way of your web site or app.
- Person Lifetime to evaluate long-term consumer conduct and worth from the primary go to by way of their buyer lifecycle.
Rent Evaluation Ninjas Who Excel At Analyzing Knowledge
Lastly, CMOs must ask themselves: How did the attribution drawback handle to fly beneath the radar for thus lengthy?
They may blame GA4’s Analytics Intelligence. Automated insights are presupposed to detect uncommon adjustments or rising tendencies of their web site’s information and notify their digital analytics crew mechanically, on the Insights dashboard, inside the Analytics platform.
If the so-called Reporting Squirrels had been reluctant to spotlight any such anomaly, particularly when “direct” means “We don’t know,” then who is absolutely in charge?
That’s why CMOs additionally must ask themselves: How do I flip at the least one in every of my Reporting Squirrels into an Evaluation Ninja?
To encourage a Reporting Squirrel to evolve into an Evaluation Ninja, CMOs should shift from asking for information to encouraging somebody on their digital analytics crew to actively interpret it and suggest options.
This additionally includes encouraging them to develop abilities in statistical evaluation, perceive enterprise context, and talk findings successfully.
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Featured Picture: Viktoriia Hnatiuk/Shutterstock
