As we speak’s Memo is a obtain straight from my mind concerning the present state of Search and AI. A lot occurred in the previous few weeks, and I haven’t had an opportunity to type out my ideas.
Till now.
I’m ending this Memo with unique perception into the KPIs I measure for search proper now for premium subscribers .
On this subject, we’re taking a look at:
- The function of clicks in the way forward for search engine marketing.
- How our work “followers out” into many channels.
- AI Mode and agentic search.
- The new battle between Google and ChatGPT.
Let’s dive in!
Enhance your abilities with Progress Memo’s weekly knowledgeable insights. Subscribe at no cost!
On April 16 at 9 a.m., OpenAI dropped ChatGPT o3.
By midday, I’d already scrapped the slide deck I had completed the night time earlier than.
That whiplash has change into routine: Every new mannequin triggers the identical loop – panic that it’s smarter than I’m. Reduction after I discover the sides. Then, recent panic because the cycle restarts.
When my coach, Heather, heard me vent, she dropped a killer quote that caught with me since: “Kevin, fixed change is the brand new regular.”
She’s proper.
Releases land weekly, search interfaces mutate in a single day, and the bottom beneath each search engine marketing technique retains sliding.
As we cross the midpoint of 2025, I wish to freeze-frame what’s occurring to go looking proper now – and what it means for you.
Right here’s the brief model:
- Google’s AI Overviews (AIOs) inflate impressions whereas suffocating clicks.
- The clicks that survive carry extra buy intent than ever.
- “Efficiency” search engine marketing is morphing into an “affect” play that spans Google, LLMs, and each social feed your clients seek the advice of for a second opinion.
Let’s unpack every shift, beginning with the energy we’ve been counting all incorrect.
Empty Energy
Since Google widened AI Overviews (AIOs) in March, one sample guidelines all of them: impressions up, clicks down.
Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig
Why the hole?
Two causes:
- Individuals run extra searches because of AIOs.
- Google now information an “impression” the second somebody expands the overview, and each cited supply is logged as place 1.
The consequence: visibility inflation with out guests.
2024 was the 12 months of peak visitors.
And taking a look at how few folks clicked on hyperlinks (a number of p.c) within the AIO usability research makes me suppose it’s completely attainable clicks drop to 10% or much less of what we’ve been used to in 2024. And that’s okay.
Clicks have all the time been empty energy anyway. They have been helpful as a number one indicator for conversions/income/pipeline/gross sales/and so on. (However that’s about it. Clicks didn’t imply {dollars}, and so they didn’t imply actual enterprise development.)
After all, to us search engine marketing folks, shedding clicks sounds grim till you look nearer at person conduct:
- We thought pogo sticking was dangerous, however it’s simply regular search conduct.
- The one click on that issues is the one which ends the journey.
- In our research, 80% of these “ultimate reply” clicks nonetheless land on natural outcomes, not the AIO.
- When folks do click on, it’s to validate, examine, or purchase – high-intent actions that convert.
So, sure, uncooked clicks are vanishing, however the ones that survive are pure protein, not empty energy.
From Efficiency To Affect
Clicks are collapsing, however the ones that stay are loaded with intent.
That flips search engine marketing’s worth prop on its head.
For 20 years, we offered search engine marketing as a efficiency channel, whether or not we needed to or not.
The usual calculation was: Search quantity ✕ CTR ✕ CVR = Projected {dollars}.
When a key phrase couldn’t survive that spreadsheet, it died in committee.
In the meantime, those self same executives drop seven figures to get a emblem the dimensions of a postage stamp on an F1 automobile – no attribution mannequin in sight.
Why? Affect.
The assumption that persistent visibility bends desire.
search engine marketing is crossing the identical Rubicon. In an AIO-and-LLM world, you’re not simply combating for visitors; you’re combating for mindshare wherever prospects ask questions:
- Google’s AI Overviews.
- ChatGPT.
- Reddit threads, YouTube feedback, Discord chats.
Your model must echo throughout all of them.
Which means new yardsticks (i.e., KPIs, which I specified by the premium part on the finish of the article).
In brief, search engine marketing is graduating from direct-response to affect.
Deal with it – and finances for it – like another model channel that shapes desire lengthy earlier than the purchase button.
Channel Fan-Out
AI Mode turns a single immediate into dozens of behind-the-scenes queries – a course of engineers name “fan-out.”
The identical factor is occurring on the channel degree: Search itself is fanning out, escaping the browser and popping up in each feed, app, and gadget.
Though search engine marketing execs have been speaking about it for years, in 2025, that lastly, truly issues – and for 3 large causes:
1. LLMs have injected search into each app. Need a cookie recipe breakdown in Microsoft Excel? You may have it. Meta shipped a standalone Meta AI and wove it into WhatsApp, IG, and FB. YouTube and Netflix are testing AI Overviews so you’ll be able to “search” for the right video with out ever leaving their partitions.1
Translation: discovery now not begins – or ends – on Google.com. Every walled backyard is now its personal mini-SERP, and Google has to battle a thousand little AI search engines like google, not simply ChatGPT.
2. Individuals cross-check AI with people: Our AIO usability research confirmed a constant sample: Customers learn the AI reply, then hop to Reddit threads, YouTube feedback, or Discord chats to see whether or not actual folks agree.
Credibility now comes from echoing throughout each machine solutions and human conversations. For those who’re invisible on social or neighborhood platforms, you’re invisible within the ultimate determination loop.
3. The pie is by some means getting greater. TikTok, Fb, Instagram, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, Google, ChatGPT, Perplexity, Claude, Snapchat – the record retains rising, and so do their each day energetic customers.
The place’s the additional time coming from? Largely legacy media: linear TV, radio, even mainstream information websites. Consideration is being reallocated, not reinvented.
What it means:
- Your model’s “search” footprint is now the sum of each place folks ask questions.
- Monitoring solely Google rankings is like checking the climate on one road nook.
- To win finances, tie every extra platform again to concrete buyer perception – ideally gathered from, you guessed it, speaking to clients and utilizing instruments like Sparktoro.
Sparktoro’s channel overview
AI Mode
AI Mode is the “ultimate boss” of search.
Sundar Pichai informed Lex Fridman that “the outcomes web page is only one attainable UI,” and VP of Search Liz Reid referred to as it “a assemble.”
In different phrases, Google’s pleased to toss the basic SERP the second the mathematics works.
Similarweb knowledge reveals AI Mode adoption is a bit over 1% – for now (Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig)
However proper now, the mathematics doesn’t.
Similarweb reveals AI Mode in exactly 1% of queries, by design.
A single AI Mode reply can swallow 20-50 follow-up searches, erasing the advert slots these pages used to hold.
Till Google finds a brand new technique to cost (embedded advertisements, pay-per-chat, who is aware of), rollout will keep throttled.
When that enterprise mannequin lands, AI Mode turns into paradise for anybody who understands person intent.
Behind every immediate, Google “fans-out” dozens of micro-queries – worth, specs, comparisons, close by, critiques – and stitches the solutions collectively.
These micro-queries are the exact same long-tails you optimize for at the moment; they’re simply fired in parallel and reassembled right into a narrative.
Methods to prep whereas the gate remains to be half-closed:
- Map the seemingly fan-out set for each core subject (take a look at Individuals-Additionally-Ask, Associated Searches, Reddit threads, and so on. – extra in a future Memo).
- Monitor rankings for every micro-query; gaps there equal misplaced citations in AI Mode.
- Construction content material so it’s straightforward to cite: tight solutions, clear sub-heads, wealthy schema.
Do the homework now and also you’ll be prepared when AI Mode graduates from beta to default – at the least till the subsequent boss battle, totally agentic search, reveals up.
ChatGPT Vs. Google
The twist of 2025 is that Google is assembly ChatGPT by itself turf.
AI Mode lifts Google’s outcomes web page into the identical chat-first UI that OpenAI popularized – proof that Google is prepared to “degree down” from its ad-optimized SERP if that’s what customers count on.
Final 12 months, I shared this graphic for the launch of ChatGPT Search and obtained plenty of questions:
Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig
Two Takeaways From The Newest Projection (Chart Beneath):
- For those who extrapolate the total knowledge set, ChatGPT overtakes Google in October 2030.
- For those who extrapolate solely the final 12 months, the crossover occurs mid-2026.
Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig
Essential Caveats:
- Progress shouldn’t be future. Google nonetheless owns distribution (Android, Chrome, Safari offers) and might gradual ChatGPT by matching its options inside AI Mode and Gemini.
- The projection measures question share, not income share. Even when ChatGPT wins utilization, Google’s advertisements can preserve the money register ringing longer.
- A single platform tweak (bundling, default settings, provider offers) can bend both curve in a single day – consider how Microsoft pushed Bing Chat through Home windows updates.
What To Watch Subsequent:
- Pay-per-chat or embedded-ad experiments: Whichever firm nails monetization with out wrecking UX will dash forward.
- Default-search contracts (Apple, Samsung, Mozilla) renewing in 2026–27. Dropping any of these could be a physique blow for Google.
- Cell latency and offline mode: If ChatGPT can run acceptably on-device, Google’s internet moat shrinks quick.
Backside line: deal with the Google-ChatGPT battle as a dwell A/B check for the way forward for search.
Your job is to be seen in each ecosystems till a transparent winner emerges – and which will take years.
Conductor Mode
Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig
So, the place does all of this go away search engine marketing (leaders)?
Much less within the weeds, extra on the rostrum.
Your job is now not to fine-tune a single channel; it’s to maintain a complete orchestra in time as search fragments throughout AI Overviews, chatbots, and social feeds.
No different function sits on the intersection of a lot (intent) knowledge – and that offers you license (and accountability) to conduct.
1. Paid Media
- Pipe impression, click on, and conversion knowledge from basic SERPs, AIOs, and AI Mode again into one shared Looker Sprint.
- Swap key phrases and inventive weekly; AI churn calls for shorter suggestions loops.
2. Social & Neighborhood
- Mine Reddit threads, TikTok feedback, and Discord chats to floor the “why” behind queries.
- Feed these insights straight to content material so each article solutions an actual objection.
3. Product Advertising
- Hand them the precise language customers copy-paste into prompts; that’s gold for positioning.
- Return the favor by baking the newest differentiators into each meta description, schema tag, and featured snippet reply.
4. Content material/GTM
- Package deal what you study into knowledge tales, interactive instruments, and knowledgeable POVs – belongings value citing by each people and LLMs.
- Construction it so brokers can carry solutions wholesale: tight headers, clear claims, proof hyperlinks.
What’s Subsequent?
Search will get much more agentic.
We might quickly optimize not only for folks however for the AI helpers who act on their behalf.
Which means:
- Increased perception density per paragraph.
- Structured outputs (tables, JSON, how-to checklists) prepared for zero-click consumption.
- APIs or embeddings that allow brokers pull your knowledge instantly.
We’re not there but, however the runway is brief.
Shift from tactician to conductor now, and also you’ll have the rating in hand when the orchestra adjustments devices once more.
Baton up.
1 YouTube Exams AI Overviews In Search Outcomes; Netflix Exams New AI Search Engine to Advocate Exhibits, Films
Featured Picture: Paulo Bobita/Search Engine Journal
